Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 0.834586 0.974717 1.130887 1.317815 1.535495 1.781027 2.079080
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 0.597700 0.779737 1.005665 1.306633 1.697201 2.187214 2.849385
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 0.471498 0.665670 0.925892 1.300045 1.824545 2.534383 3.569731
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 0.394067 0.593262 0.877393 1.312071 1.960813 2.894436 4.343219
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.323065 0.514183 0.801907 1.266354 1.998113 3.108630 4.926691
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.298392 0.499023 0.815928 1.352516 2.239673 3.651089 6.074416
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.253757 0.444082 0.758224 1.313935 2.274153 3.869226 6.729826
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.216555 0.395255 0.702475 1.268431 2.287126 4.048332 7.336824
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.186965 0.354948 0.654962 1.229012 2.302508 4.229090 7.964533
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.170905 0.336689 0.643569 1.252068 2.431555 4.623901 9.027752
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.164458 0.335520 0.663068 1.334804 2.681751 5.269642 10.644685
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.153522 0.323862 0.660746 1.374241 2.852007 5.782458 12.066403
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.139741 0.304953 0.642578 1.381361 2.962520 6.200000 13.370353
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.125772 0.283718 0.616998 1.369909 3.033778 6.548815 14.583575
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.113987 0.265469 0.595112 1.363019 3.113159 6.923302 15.901077
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.105153 0.252537 0.582917 1.375626 3.236694 7.407239 17.525481
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.093000 0.230123 0.546493 1.327704 3.215412 7.566178 18.425402
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.091367 0.232634 0.567673 1.418021 3.530195 8.530753 21.354819
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.081764 0.214115 0.536627 1.377580 3.523736 8.740497 22.480087
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.072869 0.196113 0.504458 1.329881 3.492641 8.886356 23.464884
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.065318 0.180537 0.476299 1.288560 3.472112 9.055299 24.531257
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.061717 0.175036 0.473240 1.312728 3.626143 9.685849 26.897154
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.061167 0.177864 0.492427 1.399456 3.959727 10.824493 30.787894